IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#161
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.9	#82
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.9	#115

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.5%	8.6%	4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.1%	2.3%	0.6%
Average Seed	12.9	12.2	13.4

.500 or above	34.1%	52.0%	27.2%
.500 or above in Conference	40.2%	50.7%	36.1%
Conference Champion	4.1%	6.7%	3.1%
Last Place in Conference	15.8%	10.2%	18.0%

First Four	0.9%	1.2%	0.8%
First Round	5.0%	8.1%	3.8%
Second Round	0.9%	2.0%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.0	0.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.7	0.3 - 2.7
Quad 2	1.2 - 4.3	1.4 - 7.0
Quad 3	4.9 - 6.9	6.3 - 13.9
Quad 4	5.4 - 2.3	11.7 - 16.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	111	@ Ball St.	L	73-76	28%
Nov 09, 2018	235	@ Green Bay	W	78-74	56%
Nov 24, 2018	60	Western Kentucky	L	71-80	31%
Nov 28, 2018	321	@ San Jose St.	W	73-63	74%
Dec 01, 2018	138	Wright St.	L	69-71	55%
Dec 05, 2018	132	North Texas	L	70-72	53%
Dec 16, 2018	28	@ TCU	L	69-81	10%
Dec 22, 2018	84	Colorado	L	68-74	31%
Dec 23, 2018	139	UNLV	L	77-79	43%
Dec 25, 2018	28	TCU	L	69-81	16%
Jan 02, 2019	67	@ Loyola Chicago	L	65-73	19%
Jan 05, 2019	117	Bradley	L	67-70	50%
Jan 08, 2019	190	Missouri St.	W	70-68	65%
Jan 12, 2019	196	@ Evansville	W	66-64	48%
Jan 16, 2019	116	@ Northern Iowa	L	63-66	30%
Jan 19, 2019	67	Loyola Chicago	L	65-73	34%
Jan 23, 2019	120	Valparaiso	L	70-73	50%
Jan 27, 2019	75	@ Illinois St.	L	71-77	22%
Jan 30, 2019	104	@ Southern Illinois	L	68-72	29%
Feb 02, 2019	202	Drake	W	74-71	68%
Feb 06, 2019	196	Evansville	W	66-64	67%
Feb 09, 2019	117	@ Bradley	L	67-70	31%
Feb 13, 2019	120	@ Valparaiso	L	70-73	32%
Feb 16, 2019	104	Southern Illinois	L	68-72	47%
Feb 20, 2019	75	Illinois St.	L	71-77	39%
Feb 23, 2019	190	@ Missouri St.	W	70-68	45%
Feb 27, 2019	202	@ Drake	W	74-71	49%
Mar 02, 2019	116	Northern Iowa	L	63-66	50%
Projected Record						11.7 - 16.3	7.7 - 10.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.3	0.9	1.2	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.0		4.1	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.1	2.2	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.0				6.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.3	3.2	2.4	0.9	0.1						8.1	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.1	4.2	2.4	0.6	0.0							9.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	5.0	2.8	0.6	0.0								11.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.3	5.6	2.6	0.4	0.0									12.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.8	3.6	5.5	2.5	0.3	0.0										12.7	7th
8th				0.2	1.4	3.8	4.9	2.2	0.3	0.0											12.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	1.9	3.8	3.7	1.8	0.2	0.0												11.9	9th
10th	0.3	1.4	2.5	3.1	2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0													10.1	10th

Total	0.3	1.5	3.0	5.1	7.4	9.1	10.8	11.5	11.3	10.2	9.0	7.3	5.5	4.0	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	98.9%	0.4		0.4	0.1
15-3	82.5%	1.0		0.8	0.2	0.0
14-4	53.1%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	22.0%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	5.7%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.1%	4.1		2.3	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	34.9%	65.1%	3.5		0.0	0.0		0.0			0.0	0.0			0.0								100.0%
17-1	0.2%		87.9%	33.4%	54.5%	8.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		81.8%
16-2	0.5%		61.9%	22.3%	39.6%	9.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		51.0%
15-3	1.2%		46.5%	22.8%	23.7%	11.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6		30.7%
14-4	2.2%		30.4%	21.3%	9.1%	12.1					0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6		11.6%
13-5	4.0%		21.3%	16.0%	5.3%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	3.2		6.3%
12-6	5.5%		15.1%	14.0%	1.0%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	4.7		1.2%
11-7	7.3%		7.3%	7.3%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0	6.8		0.0%
10-8	9.0%		6.0%	6.0%	0.0%	14.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	8.5		0.0%
9-9	10.2%		3.5%	3.5%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.9
8-10	11.3%		2.1%	2.1%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	11.0
7-11	11.5%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	11.3
6-12	10.8%		0.7%	0.7%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.7
5-13	9.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1	9.0
4-14	7.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.0	7.3
3-15	5.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.1
2-16	3.0%																							3.0
1-17	1.5%																							1.5
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		5.5%	4.4%	1.1%	12.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.6	94.6		1.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%